Microsoft · 25 Jan 1994

Windows: The Next Killer Application on the Internet

Allard tells five Microsoft executives that the internet is booming on Unix and the Mac, and sets out a three-phase plan to make Windows its main tool.

Author
J Allard
Written
25 Jan 1994
Document
Internal memo listed as a US v. Microsoft trial exhibit; text from unattributed third-party copies
Notes
9: 5 fact, 4 editorial
Last reviewed

The memo

Short excerpts from the 16-page memo, taken from a re-typeset copy because the Justice Department, which listed it as a trial exhibit, publishes no file of it; the link opens the full text. We drop the copy’s footnote numbers and bullet marks, and keep the memo’s own spelling.

Excerpts · 9 notes
Microsoft1994
To:
Paul Maritz, Jim Allchin, Brad Silverberg, Tom Evslin, Dave Thompson
From:
J. Allard
Date:
January 25, 1994
Subject:
Windows: The Next Killer Application on the Internet

With every passing minute, 2 new systems become wired. A new, connected network appears every 40 minutes.

[ … ] Not shown: Publishing statistics and the term “infostructure”

Microsoft is very well positioned to grow our Systems marketshare in some strategic areas and win the mindshare of millions with incremental effort in our present product plans. This memo summarizes a decade of Internet history and technologies, identifies some recent trends, (Fact note 1)Fact · 1With hindsightThe plaintiffs’ list of trial exhibits in United States v. Microsoft, served on 13 October 1998, lists this memo as Exhibit 596, dated 01/25/94, with the 16-page Bates range MS98 0136223-0136238. The Justice Department’s published index of trial exhibits links files for 595 and 597 but none for 596. The text we quote comes from two re-typeset PDFs that carry no Bates numbers and do not say where they came from. Both run to 16 pages, and their words match apart from the placement of footnotes and captions.SourcesU.S. Department of JusticeAppendix B - Plaintiffs' List Of Trial Exhibits13 Oct 1998U.S. Department of Justice (Internet Archive copy)U.S. v. Microsoft - Exhibits3 Aug 2001sriramk.comOpportunities for Microsoft on the Internet12 Jun 2016ftp.hanmesoft.com (Hobbes archive mirror)Opportunities for Microsoft on the Internet14 Nov 2014 and explores what it will take to make Windows the next killer application on the Internet. (Editorial note 2)Editorial · 2Known at the timeThe title sets the ambition. Allard does not ask for a browser or an online service; he wants Windows itself to be the reason people get on the internet. That puts the internet inside the existing Windows business, which is why the memo promises results “with incremental effort in our present product plans”.Sourcesriramk.comOpportunities for Microsoft on the Internet12 Jun 2016

[ … ] Not shown: Internet growth figures and a survey of services and protocols

The biggest change facing the Internet in the next two years is the introduction of commercial services - initially in the areas of electronic shopping and publishing.

[ … ] Not shown: Support savings from Microsoft’s FTP server

The word on the Internet is that if you want to bring a server online, buy a Unix. If you want to get a cool Internet client, use Unix or better yet - buy a Macintosh.

[ … ] Not shown: Windows tools and an IETF meeting

The work done by our team position both Daytona and Chicago very well to shatter these Unix-biased perceptions. With built in TCP/IP, dialup connectivity via SLIP/PPP and Windows Sockets support, we will deliver millions of “Internet-ready” systems to the masses in 1994. (Fact note 3)Fact · 3With hindsightChicago missed 1994. In September 1994 TidBITS reported that Chicago would be called Windows95, and wrote that “we can be certain Chicago won’t ship until next year”. In May 1995 Microsoft set 24 August as the launch date; the report noted the system was “originally slated to reach store shelves last year”. Windows 95 went on sale at more than 20,000 US retail outlets on 24 August 1995. A year later Microsoft marked the anniversary of Windows 95 on 24 August.SourcesTidBITSChicago in 94? No, Windows9519 Sep 1994The Spokesman-Review (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)Microsoft To Launch Windows 95 Aug. 2419 May 1995The Seattle TimesWindows 95: `Start Me Up' Time -- Microsoft's Global Bash Will Tout Its New Software23 Aug 1995Microsoft (Internet Archive copy)One-Year Anniversary of Windows 95 to Be Celebrated21 Aug 1996

[ … ] Not shown: Server markets and research use of the internet

Today, it is probably fair to consider Internet connectivity a competitive advantage in the software industry. Tomorrow it will be a measurable disadvantage if we’re not wired.

[ … ] Not shown: A footnote and a forum quotation

In order to build the necessary respect and win the mindshare of the Internet community, I recommend a recipe not unlike the one we’ve used with our TCP/IP efforts: embrace, extend, then innovate. (Editorial note 4)Editorial · 4Known at the timeThe recipe is a sequence, and the order is the strategy: learn the community and adopt its standards first, offer compatible integrated tools second, and only then lead on new standards. Allard grounds it in the TCP/IP work Microsoft had already done. Sixteen months later Gates’s Tidal Wave memo kept the order: “we first embrace the Internet and then extend it”.SourceUS Department of JusticeGovernment Exhibit 20, United States v. Microsoft26 May 1995 Phase 1 (Embrace): all participants need to establish a solid understanding of the infostructure and the community - determine the needs and the trends of the user base. Only then can we effectively enable Microsoft system products to be great Internet systems.

[ … ] Not shown: Phases 2 and 3 of the recipe

Although we are years behind many of our competitors on the Internet, our agility and creativity will allow us to catch up quickly.

[ … ] Not shown: Phase 1 detail and the opening of Phase 2

Integration will help us win the mindshare of new Internet clients, but in order to win the mindshare of current Internet users and server administrators, we will need to round out our server-side offerings to include other technologies like gopher, and WWW. (Fact note 5)Fact · 5With hindsightOn 12 February 1996 Microsoft made Internet Information Server available free over the internet, describing it as its entry into the World Wide Web server market and the first web server integrated with Windows NT Server. Its release said tests show IIS is “four times as fast as higher-priced UNIX® Web servers”, a Microsoft claim we have not checked independently.SourceMicrosoft (Internet Archive copy)Microsoft Ships Internet Information Server Free Product Outperforms UNIX...12 Feb 1996

[ … ] Not shown: Cairo query technology and the Marvel project

With 2 million hosts growing at 5+% per month, MarvelNet is going to have a hard time competing with the growth of the Internet. (Editorial note 6)Editorial · 6Known at the timeAllard tells his own company that its planned private network, Marvel, cannot outgrow the public one, and proposes carrying Marvel over the internet. Marvel was the code name behind The Microsoft Network: a December 1994 trial exhibit is titled “Microsoft Network (Marvel) Demo”. The choice he names is whether to own the wire or ride the one users are already on.SourceU.S. Department of JusticeAppendix B - Plaintiffs' List Of Trial Exhibits13 Oct 1998 I believe the most practical approach is to embrace these users and to use the wire that they’re already on to acquire their business.

[ … ] Not shown: Phase 2 action items and the Phase 3 Cairo vision

Without an extensive beta cycle, it will be difficult to ensure full interoperability of Internet clients with existing server implementations. My recommendation to ship Internet clients with the Resource Kit(s) in the initial stage and hold off putting them in the product (Editorial note 7)Editorial · 7Known at the timeThis is the cautious half of the memo. Having asked for integration, Allard argues for keeping internet clients out of the core product until they are proven against servers Microsoft does not control. He trades speed for supportability, on the evidence of the FTP server, which he says took three months of interoperability testing after two man-months of development.Sourcesriramk.comOpportunities for Microsoft on the Internet12 Jun 2016 allows us to guarantee they are rock-solid interoperable and supportable.

[ … ] Not shown: Support risks and routing-table growth

Current predictions estimate the life expectancy (given current growth rates) of the Internet address space to be ~5 years. (Fact note 8)Fact · 8With hindsightThe estimate Allard reports proved far too short. On 3 February 2011, seventeen years later, the Number Resource Organization announced that “the free pool of available IPv4 addresses is now fully depleted”.SourceThe Number Resource OrganizationFree Pool of IPv4 Address Space Depleted3 Feb 2011 If the growth curve takes another dramatic upswing, this has the potential to become problematic in less time. Several engineering groups within the IETF have been chartered to design solutions to this pressing problem which are referred to as IPng, or Internet Protocol, next generation. The IETF has organized a 17 member board to provide guidance in this area to which I was appointed. (Fact note 9)Fact · 9With hindsightRFC 1752 of January 1995, the IETF’s recommendation for the next-generation Internet Protocol, lists “J. Allard - Microsoft” among the members of the IPng Area Directorate. The memo’s next sentence is candid about why the seat mattered to Microsoft: it is a chance to steer the proposals.SourceRFC EditorThe Recommendation for the IP Next Generation ProtocolJan 1995 This gives Microsoft an opportunity to protect our corporate interests by steering the proposals to consider requirements of longer-term developments that we’d like to explore.

[ … ] Not shown: The rest of the address-space risk

Microsoft has stood quiet during the initial explosion in this infostructure growth.

All 9 notes and their sources
  1. This memo summarizes a decade of Internet history and technologies, identifies some recent trends,Fact · 1With hindsightThe plaintiffs’ list of trial exhibits in United States v. Microsoft, served on 13 October 1998, lists this memo as Exhibit 596, dated 01/25/94, with the 16-page Bates range MS98 0136223-0136238. The Justice Department’s published index of trial exhibits links files for 595 and 597 but none for 596. The text we quote comes from two re-typeset PDFs that carry no Bates numbers and do not say where they came from. Both run to 16 pages, and their words match apart from the placement of footnotes and captions.SourcesU.S. Department of JusticeAppendix B - Plaintiffs' List Of Trial Exhibits13 Oct 1998U.S. Department of Justice (Internet Archive copy)U.S. v. Microsoft - Exhibits3 Aug 2001sriramk.comOpportunities for Microsoft on the Internet12 Jun 2016ftp.hanmesoft.com (Hobbes archive mirror)Opportunities for Microsoft on the Internet14 Nov 2014Back to the passage
  2. make Windows the next killer application on the Internet.Editorial · 2Known at the timeThe title sets the ambition. Allard does not ask for a browser or an online service; he wants Windows itself to be the reason people get on the internet. That puts the internet inside the existing Windows business, which is why the memo promises results “with incremental effort in our present product plans”.Sourcesriramk.comOpportunities for Microsoft on the Internet12 Jun 2016Back to the passage
  3. we will deliver millions of “Internet-ready” systems to the masses in 1994.Fact · 3With hindsightChicago missed 1994. In September 1994 TidBITS reported that Chicago would be called Windows95, and wrote that “we can be certain Chicago won’t ship until next year”. In May 1995 Microsoft set 24 August as the launch date; the report noted the system was “originally slated to reach store shelves last year”. Windows 95 went on sale at more than 20,000 US retail outlets on 24 August 1995. A year later Microsoft marked the anniversary of Windows 95 on 24 August.SourcesTidBITSChicago in 94? No, Windows9519 Sep 1994The Spokesman-Review (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)Microsoft To Launch Windows 95 Aug. 2419 May 1995The Seattle TimesWindows 95: `Start Me Up' Time -- Microsoft's Global Bash Will Tout Its New Software23 Aug 1995Microsoft (Internet Archive copy)One-Year Anniversary of Windows 95 to Be Celebrated21 Aug 1996Back to the passage
  4. I recommend a recipe not unlike the one we’ve used with our TCP/IP efforts: embrace, extend, then innovate.Editorial · 4Known at the timeThe recipe is a sequence, and the order is the strategy: learn the community and adopt its standards first, offer compatible integrated tools second, and only then lead on new standards. Allard grounds it in the TCP/IP work Microsoft had already done. Sixteen months later Gates’s Tidal Wave memo kept the order: “we first embrace the Internet and then extend it”.SourceUS Department of JusticeGovernment Exhibit 20, United States v. Microsoft26 May 1995Back to the passage
  5. we will need to round out our server-side offerings to include other technologies like gopher, and WWW.Fact · 5With hindsightOn 12 February 1996 Microsoft made Internet Information Server available free over the internet, describing it as its entry into the World Wide Web server market and the first web server integrated with Windows NT Server. Its release said tests show IIS is “four times as fast as higher-priced UNIX® Web servers”, a Microsoft claim we have not checked independently.SourceMicrosoft (Internet Archive copy)Microsoft Ships Internet Information Server Free Product Outperforms UNIX...12 Feb 1996Back to the passage
  6. MarvelNet is going to have a hard time competing with the growth of the Internet.Editorial · 6Known at the timeAllard tells his own company that its planned private network, Marvel, cannot outgrow the public one, and proposes carrying Marvel over the internet. Marvel was the code name behind The Microsoft Network: a December 1994 trial exhibit is titled “Microsoft Network (Marvel) Demo”. The choice he names is whether to own the wire or ride the one users are already on.SourceU.S. Department of JusticeAppendix B - Plaintiffs' List Of Trial Exhibits13 Oct 1998Back to the passage
  7. My recommendation to ship Internet clients with the Resource Kit(s) in the initial stage and hold off putting them in the productEditorial · 7Known at the timeThis is the cautious half of the memo. Having asked for integration, Allard argues for keeping internet clients out of the core product until they are proven against servers Microsoft does not control. He trades speed for supportability, on the evidence of the FTP server, which he says took three months of interoperability testing after two man-months of development.Sourcesriramk.comOpportunities for Microsoft on the Internet12 Jun 2016Back to the passage
  8. Current predictions estimate the life expectancy (given current growth rates) of the Internet address space to be ~5 years.Fact · 8With hindsightThe estimate Allard reports proved far too short. On 3 February 2011, seventeen years later, the Number Resource Organization announced that “the free pool of available IPv4 addresses is now fully depleted”.SourceThe Number Resource OrganizationFree Pool of IPv4 Address Space Depleted3 Feb 2011Back to the passage
  9. The IETF has organized a 17 member board to provide guidance in this area to which I was appointed.Fact · 9With hindsightRFC 1752 of January 1995, the IETF’s recommendation for the next-generation Internet Protocol, lists “J. Allard - Microsoft” among the members of the IPng Area Directorate. The memo’s next sentence is candid about why the seat mattered to Microsoft: it is a chance to steer the proposals.SourceRFC EditorThe Recommendation for the IP Next Generation ProtocolJan 1995Back to the passage

What happened next

Dated events, each with its source. They are what followed the memo, not proof that it caused them.

  1. 8 mos later

    Microsoft names Chicago Windows95; TidBITS writes that it will not ship until 1995.

    TidBITS

  2. 1 yr later

    The IETF publishes RFC 1752, its recommendation for the next-generation Internet Protocol, with Allard listed on the IPng Area Directorate.

    RFC Editor

  3. 1 yr 4 mos later

    Bill Gates sends his executive staff “The Internet Tidal Wave”, later Exhibit 20 in the same trial exhibit list.

    U.S. Department of Justice

  4. 1 yr 7 mos later

    Windows 95 goes on sale at more than 20,000 US retail outlets, after a launch first slated for 1994.

    The Seattle TimesThe Spokesman-Review (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)Microsoft (Internet Archive copy)

  5. 2 yrs 1 mo later

    Microsoft makes Internet Information Server, its web server for Windows NT Server, available free over the internet.

    Microsoft (Internet Archive copy)

  6. 17 yrs 1 mo later

    The Number Resource Organization announces that the free pool of IPv4 addresses is fully depleted.

    The Number Resource Organization

The calls, against the record

Each claim in the memo’s own words, the evidence, and our reading of it. Verdicts are editorial.

  1. Missed

    “we will deliver millions of “Internet-ready” systems to the masses in 1994.”

    Evidence

    Chicago did not ship in 1994; it went on sale as Windows 95 on 24 August 1995, after a launch “originally slated to reach store shelves last year”.

    TidBITSThe Spokesman-Review (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)The Seattle Times

    Our reading Editorial

    The year was wrong because Chicago’s schedule slipped, not because the internet plan changed. This page has no source on what internet support Windows 95 shipped with, or on Daytona’s release.

  2. Held up

    “we will need to round out our server-side offerings to include other technologies like gopher, and WWW.”

    Evidence

    In February 1996 Microsoft shipped Internet Information Server, which it described as the first web server integrated with Windows NT Server, free over the internet.

    Microsoft (Internet Archive copy)

    Our reading Editorial

    Microsoft did add a web server to Windows NT Server, two years after the memo. This page does not test gopher support, or whether IIS displaced Unix servers.

  3. Held up

    “MarvelNet is going to have a hard time competing with the growth of the Internet.”

    Evidence

    Marvel shipped as The Microsoft Network (a December 1994 exhibit is titled “Microsoft Network (Marvel) Demo”), and in December 1995, four months after it went live, Microsoft said it would make the service available on the internet.

    U.S. Department of JusticeThe Spokesman-Review (wire reports)

    Our reading Editorial

    Microsoft moved its own network onto the wire Allard recommended within months of launch. The Gates memo page covers that turn; whether a private network could have held out longer is untested.

  4. Missed

    “Current predictions estimate the life expectancy (given current growth rates) of the Internet address space to be ~5 years.”

    Evidence

    The free pool of IPv4 addresses ran out on 3 February 2011, seventeen years after the memo.

    The Number Resource Organization

    Our reading Editorial

    Allard reports other people’s estimate rather than making his own, and he warns it could come sooner. IANA’s free pool lasted more than three times as long; this page does not source why.

Takeaways Editorial

  1. Make your existing product the answer

    Allard frames the internet not as a new business but as a reason to choose Windows. Tying a new trend to the product you already sell gets it funded by the people who run that product.

  2. Earn standing before you set standards

    The memo puts adopting the community’s protocols and earning its respect before any attempt to lead it. A newcomer to an open ecosystem has to be compatible before it can be influential.

  3. A date in a strategy memo is a bet on another team

    The 1994 promise depended on Chicago’s schedule, which Allard did not control. Tie the claims you can be held to to work you own, and name the dependency for the rest.

Practise the strategy skills in this memo

Socratify is an interview coach. Each link opens a practice session with this memo as the case; nothing is sent until you choose to start.