Master Plan Part 3 – Sustainable Energy for All of Earth

On March 1, 2023, Tesla presented Master Plan Part 3¹ (Fact note 1)Fact · 1Known at the timeTesla presented the plan on 1 March 2023 and published this paper five weeks later. The PDF’s contents page reads “Published on April 5, 2023”, and Tesla’s blog post that day begins “Today, we are publishing Master Plan Part 3”. The paper lists Tesla contributors and advisors but names no single author.SourcesTesla (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan Part 3 – Sustainable Energy for All of Earth5 Apr 2023Tesla blog (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan Part 35 Apr 2023 – a proposed path to reach a sustainable global energy economy through end-use electrification and sustainable electricity generation and storage. This paper outlines the assumptions, sources and calculations behind that proposal. Input and conversation are welcome.² (Editorial note 2)Editorial · 2Known at the timeTesla’s earlier master plans listed what Tesla itself would build. This one models what the whole world would need, and it sets no year by which the end state should be reached. Without dates or owners it reads as an invitation to check the arithmetic, not as a commitment anyone can be held to.

This paper finds a sustainable energy economy is technically feasible and requires less investment and less material extraction than continuing today’s unsustainable energy economy. While many prior studies have come to a similar conclusion, this study seeks to push the thinking forward related to material intensity, manufacturing capacity, and manufacturing investment required for a transition across all energy sectors worldwide.

[ … ] Not shown: Headline figures and losses in today’s energy system

In total, only 36% (59PWh) of the primary energy supply produces useful work or heat for the economy.

[ … ] Not shown: How the six steps set electricity demand

Modeling was done on the US energy economy using high-fidelity data available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) from 2019-2022, and results were scaled to estimate actions needed for the global economy using a 6x scaling factor based on the 2019 energy consumption scalar between the U.S. and the world, according to IEA Energy Balances. This is a significant simplification and could be an area for improvement in future analyses³ (Editorial note 3)Editorial · 3Known at the timeThe paper flags its largest shortcut itself: the global generation and stationary storage portfolio is the US model scaled by six, while the vehicle-battery figure is built from global fleet counts. Saying so is to its credit, but the 30 TW of generation inherits the shortcut, and the paper does not say how sensitive that figure is to it.SourceTesla (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan Part 3 – Sustainable Energy for All of Earth5 Apr 2023, as global energy demands are different from the U.S. in their composition and expected to increase over time.

[ … ] Not shown: Why US data was used

This plan considers onshore/offshore wind, solar, existing nuclear and hydro⁴ (Editorial note 4)Editorial · 4Known at the timeThe generation table prices new nuclear and geothermal, then sets them aside with the model constraints “No New Nuclear” and “No New Build”. That leaves wind, solar and storage to carry the whole build-out, and casts the problem in the batteries and Megapack-type factories Tesla already makes. The paper does not explain the choice.SourceTesla (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan Part 3 – Sustainable Energy for All of Earth5 Apr 2023 as sustainable electricity generation sources, and considers existing biomass as sustainable although it will likely be phased out over time.

[ … ] Not shown: Step 1, repowering the existing grid

Electric vehicles are approximately 4x more efficient than internal combustion engine vehicles due to higher powertrain efficiency, regenerative braking capability, and optimized platform design.

[ … ] Not shown: Vehicle efficiency table and charging model

On average, Tesla drivers charge once every 1.7 days from 60% SOC to 90% SOC⁵ (Editorial note 5)Editorial · 5Known at the timeTesla uses its own drivers’ charging habits as the load curve for all electrified road transport. Few authors could cite such data, but Tesla owners may not represent the drivers of 1.4 billion vehicles, and the clause “provided there is charging infrastructure at both homes and workplaces” carries much of the weight.SourceTesla (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan Part 3 – Sustainable Energy for All of Earth5 Apr 2023, so EVs have sufficient range relative to typical daily mileage to optimize their charging around renewable power availability provided there is charging infrastructure at both homes and workplaces.

Global electrification of the transportation sector eliminates 28 PWh/year of fossil fuel use and, applying the 4x EV efficiency factor, creates ~7 PWh/year of additional electrical demand.

[ … ] Not shown: How heat pumps work

Gas furnaces create heat by burning natural gas. They have an annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE) of ~90%. Therefore, heat pumps use ~3x less energy than gas furnaces (2.8/0.9).

[ … ] Not shown: Industrial heat, hydrogen, ships, planes; the grid model

Applying the 6 steps to the world’s energy flow would displace all 125PWh/year of fossil fuels used for energy use and replace them with 66PWh/year of sustainably generated electricity.

[ … ] Not shown: Global scaling method

Today there are 1.4B vehicles globally and annual passenger vehicle production of ~85M vehicles, according to OICA. Based on pack size assumptions, the vehicle fleet will require 112 TWh of batteries⁶ (Fact note 6)Fact · 6With hindsightThe paper sizes vehicle batteries for the world fleet, not for Tesla. Tesla’s own deliveries were 1,808,581 in 2023, 1,789,226 in 2024 and 1,636,129 in 2025, so its volume fell in each of the two years after the paper.SourcesTesla investor relations (Internet Archive copy)Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Fourth Quarter 20232 Jan 2024Tesla investor relations (Internet Archive copy)Tesla Fourth Quarter 2024 Production, Deliveries & Deployments2 Jan 2025Tesla investor relations (Internet Archive copy)Tesla Fourth Quarter 2025 Production, Deliveries & Deployments2 Jan 2026. Autonomy has potential to reduce the global fleet, and annual production required, through improved vehicle utilization.

[ … ] Not shown: Battery chemistries, ships, planes and storage totals

Investment catalogued here is inclusive of the manufacturing facilities, mining and refining operations for materials that require significant growth, and hydrogen storage salt cavern installation.⁷ (Fact note 7)Fact · 7With hindsightThe paper’s investment covers “the manufacturing facilities, mining and refining operations” plus hydrogen salt caverns, and its table sizes “Stationary E-chem Factories (e.g. Megapack)” at 2,310 GWh a year. Tesla later described its Lathrop plant as a “40 GWh Megafactory” and said Megafactory Shanghai had “20 GWh of current annual capacity and the ability to double to 40 GWh”.SourcesTesla (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan Part 3 – Sustainable Energy for All of Earth5 Apr 2023Tesla investor relationsQ4 and FY 2023 Update24 Jan 2024Tesla investor relationsQ1 2025 Update22 Apr 2025 Manufacturing facilities are sized to the replacement rate of each asset, and upstream operations (e.g., mining) are sized accordingly.

[ … ] Not shown: Materials needing new mining and refining

In addition to initial capex, 5%/year maintenance capex with a 20-year horizon is included in the investment estimate. Using these assumptions, building the manufacturing infrastructure for the sustainable energy economy will cost $10 trillion, as compared to the $14 trillion projected 20-year spend on fossil fuels at the 2022 investment rate⁸ (Editorial note 8)Editorial · 8Known at the timeThis comparison is the paper’s main persuasive device. It sets twenty years of manufacturing and upstream investment against twenty years of fossil-fuel investment. The investment table has no row for building transmission lines, although the model assumes more transmission between regions.SourceTesla (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan Part 3 – Sustainable Energy for All of Earth5 Apr 2023.

[ … ] Not shown: Investment tables; land area for solar and wind

In sum, there are no fundamental materials constraints when evaluating against 2023 USGS estimated resources. Furthermore, Resources and Reserves have historically increased – that is, when a mineral is in demand, there is more incentive to look for it and more is discovered. Annual mining, concentrating, and refining of relevant metal ores must grow to meet demand for the renewable energy economy, for which the fundamental constraints are human capital and permitting/regulatory timelines⁹ (Editorial note 9)Editorial · 9Known at the timeAfter a headline promising no insurmountable resource challenges, the paper names the binding constraints as people and permits. That is the honest line in the document, and the one a manufacturer cannot solve by building factories..

[ … ] Not shown: Recycling outlook

Modeling reveals that the electrified and sustainable future is technically feasible and requires less investment and less material extraction than continuing today’s unsustainable energy economy.

[ … ] Not shown: Appendices on allocation and energy intensity