Master Plan, Part Deux

The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of:

1. Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive¹ (Fact note 1)Fact · 1With hindsightThe restatement is not the original. In 2006 the first step was “Build sports car” and the third “an even more affordable car”; in 2016 they become a “low volume car” and an “affordable, high volume car”. The plan is recast in terms of volume, which is how the new plan is argued.SourcesTesla Motors blog (Internet Archive copy)The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)2 Aug 2006Tesla blog (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan, Part Deux20 Jul 2016

2. Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price

3. Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car And...

4. Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.

[ … ] Not shown: Why the first car was expensive, and the first post’s critics.

However, the main reason was to explain how our actions fit into a larger picture, so that they would seem less random² (Editorial note 2)Editorial · 2Known at the timeMusk names the genre’s real job: to make a string of costly moves read as one plan. The same post asks shareholders to accept a merger, a wider product line and a bet on autonomy at once. Framing them as steps towards one purpose makes each easier to defend, and harder to judge alone.. The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good.

[ … ] Not shown: Why a sustainable energy economy must come, and soon.

Integrate Energy Generation and Storage

Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works³ (Fact note 3)Fact · 3With hindsightTesla opened Solar Roof orders on 10 May 2017, describing it “With an integrated Powerwall”. Its later updates report solar and storage, not Solar Roof on its own: solar deployed fell from 348 MW in 2022 to 223 MW in 2023, while storage deployed rose from 6.5 GWh in 2022 to 31.4 GWh in 2024.SourcesTesla blog (Internet Archive copy)Solar Roof10 May 2017Tesla investor relationsQ4 and FY 2023 UpdateJan 2024Tesla investor relationsQ4 and FY 2024 UpdateJan 2025, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.

We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers inherent to being separate companies.⁴ (Fact note 4)Fact · 4Known at the timeThe plan was also deal advocacy. The post closes with a legal notice that it is not “a solicitation of a proxy from any stockholder” and that documents “regarding the proposed transaction may be filed with the SEC”. Readers were being asked to support the SolarCity combination as part of the plan.SourceTesla blog (Internet Archive copy)Master Plan, Part Deux20 Jul 2016

[ … ] Not shown: Why the two companies should combine now.

Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport

Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck⁵ (Fact note 5)Fact · 5With hindsightBoth arrived. Tesla said Model Y “deliveries began in March” 2020, “significantly ahead of schedule”. In its 2023 annual update it said that at Gigafactory Texas “we began production of the Cybertruck and delivered the first units to customers”, and expected the Cybertruck ramp to be longer than other models’.SourcesTesla investor relations (Internet Archive copy)Tesla Q1 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries2 Apr 2020Tesla investor relationsQ4 and FY 2023 UpdateJan 2024, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary⁶ (Fact note 6)Fact · 6With hindsightThe post relied on self-driving to make a cheaper car unnecessary. Nine years later, Tesla reported “first builds of a more affordable model in June” 2025, “with volume production planned for the second half of 2025”. The update does not price it against Model 3.SourceTesla investor relationsQ2 2025 UpdateJul 2025, because of the third part of the plan described below.

[ … ] Not shown: Designing the factory itself as a product.

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport⁷ (Fact note 7)Fact · 7With hindsightTesla reported that Semi pilot production began in Q4 2022 “with first deliveries occurring in December 2022”; in mid-2025 its capacity table still listed Tesla Semi in Nevada as “Construction”. For urban transport, the nearest product in our sources is Robovan, unveiled in October 2024 with space for up to 20. Reading Robovan as the plan’s bus is our inference.SourcesTesla investor relationsQ4 and FY 2022 UpdateJan 2023Tesla investor relationsQ2 2025 UpdateJul 2025Tesla investor relationsQ3 2024 UpdateOct 2024. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.

[ … ] Not shown: Smaller autonomous buses, and the Semi’s expected benefits.

Autonomy

[ … ] Not shown: Every car to carry self-driving hardware.

It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.⁸ (Editorial note 8)Editorial · 8Known at the timeThe most candid sentence in the post. Three months later Tesla announced that every car it made would have “the hardware needed for full self-driving capability”. Fitting hardware ahead of software builds a fleet that can learn, but it leaves buyers holding the timing risk this sentence flags.SourceTesla blog (Internet Archive copy)All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware19 Oct 2016

[ … ] Not shown: Regulatory approval, fleet mileage, partial autonomy and the beta label.

Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.⁹ (Fact note 9)Fact · 9With hindsightTesla set its own bar here: 10 times safer than the average. In July 2025 its update described the product as “FSD (Supervised)”, with the footnote “Active driver supervision required; does not make the vehicle autonomous”. We have not found a Tesla source saying the 10x bar was met.SourceTesla investor relationsQ2 2025 UpdateJul 2025

[ … ] Not shown: Summoning a self-driving car.

You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app¹⁰ (Fact note 10)Fact · 10With hindsightWhat came first was Tesla’s own service. In June 2025 it “launched our Robotaxi service in the first city, Austin, with a safety rider”, and a Robotaxi app with which “customers can request a ride”. The update does not mention owners adding their own cars.SourceTesla investor relationsQ2 2025 UpdateJul 2025 and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost.

[ … ] Not shown: Ownership costs, car utilisation and a Tesla-run fleet.

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage

Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments

Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning

Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it